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Oscar Watching: Moving MONUMENTS

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Best Picture

The fourth No. 1 weekend we expect for Gravity helps, but how will 12 Years a Slave fare as it expands?

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

3. American Hustle (David O. Russell)

4. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels)

6. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

7. Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan and Joel Coen)

8. Philomena (Stephen Frears)

9. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)

10. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
11. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)
12. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller)
13. August: Osage County (John Wells)
14. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
15. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallée)
16. Her (Spike Jonze)
17. The Book Thief (Brian Percival)
18. Rush (Ron Howard)
19. Prisoners (Denis Villeneuve)
20. Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
21. Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
22. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater)
23. Blue is the Warmest Color (Abdellatif Kechiche)
24. One Chance (David Frankel)
25. The Counselor (Ridley Scott)

Also in the running: All is Lost (J.C. Chandor), Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper), The Past (Asghar Farhadi), Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Justin Chadwick), The Conjuring (James Wan), Side Effects (Steven Soderbergh), Ender’s Game (Gavin Hood), Mud (Jeff Nichols)

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Best Director

Again, it’s difficult to bump Alfonso Cuarón out of the top spot, but Steve McQueen remains a threat.

1. Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

3. David O. Russell for American Hustle

4 Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

5. Alexander Payne for Nebraska

6. Lee Daniels for Lee Daniels’ The Butler
7. Ethan and Joel Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station
9. Stephen Frears for Philomena
10. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Also in the running: Brian Percival for The Book Thief, Ben Stiller for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks, Ron Howard for Rush, John Wells for August: Osage County, Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine, Spike Jonze for Her, Jason Reitman for Labor Day, Jean-Marc Vallée for Dallas Buyers Club, Richard Linklater for Before Midnight, Denis Villeneuve for Prisoners, Asghar Farhadi for The Past, Abdellatif Kechiche for Blue is the Warmest Color, Ridley Scott for The Counselor, J.C. Chandor for All is Lost

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Best Actress in a Leading Role

Thompson can easily make her way into the lineup if Amy Adams and Exarchopoulos falter, but it might be difficult for her to squeeze into the picture otherwise.

1. Amy Adams for American Hustle

2. Sandra Bullock for Gravity

3. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

4. Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color

5. Judi Dench for Philomena

6. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
7. Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks
8. Sophie Nélisse for The Book Thief
9. Brie Larson for Short Term 12
10. Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Enough Said

Also in the running: Kate Winslet for Labor Day, Bérénice Bejo for The Past, Julie Delpy for Before Midnight, Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha, Shailene Woodley for The Spectacular Now, Rooney Mara for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Paulina García for Gloria, Alexandra Roach for One Chance, Felicity Jones for The Invisible Woman, Rooney Mara for Side Effects, Lake Bell for In a World…, Angela Bassett for Black Nativity, Jennifer Lawrence for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Amanda Seyfried for Lovelace

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

If this weekend’s disappointing numbers for All is Lost are any indication, Redford’s Oscar chances will line up with the film’s title. But he might recover if the film can perform well as it expands throughout the U.S. For the time being, though, Forest Whitaker takes his spot in the top five.

1. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

2. Bruce Dern for Nebraska

3. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave

4. Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips

5. Forest Whitaker for Lee Daniels’ The Butler

6. Robert Redford for All is Lost
7. Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station
9. Christian Bale for American Hustle
10. Joaquin Phoenix for Her

Also in the running: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugh Jackman for Prisoners, Michael Fassbender for The Counselor, Christian Bale for Out of the Furnace, James Corden for One Chance, Chris Hemsworth for Rush, Idris Elba for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight, Ben Stiller for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Casey Affleck for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Chadwick Boseman for 42, Dylan Minnette for Labor Day, Tye Sheridan for Mud, Jude Law for Side Effects

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Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Lupita Nyong’o continues to gain traction, as I expected she would. Critical reaction to The Counselor suggests that Diaz will have many supporters… and many detractors. Can the former group pull her into the mix?

1. Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave

2. Oprah Winfrey for Lee Daniels’ The Butler

3. Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

4. June Squibb for Nebraska

5. Cameron Diaz for The Counselor

6. Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
7. Margo Martindale for August: Osage County
8. Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station
9. Sarah Paulson for 12 Years a Slave
10. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County

Also in the running: Scarlett Johansson for Her, Sarah Paulson for 12 Years a Slave, Carey Mulligan for Inside Llewyn Davis, Amy Adams for Her, Léa Seydoux for Blue is the Warmest Color, Emily Watson for The Book Thief, Juliette Lewis for August: Osage County, Melissa Leo for Prisoners, Kristen Wiig for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Naomie Harris for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Jennifer Garner for Dallas Buyers Club, Penélope Cruz for The Counselor, Julianne Nicholson for August: Osage County, Zoë Saldana for Out of the Furnace, Catherine Keener for Captain Phillips, Julie Walters for One Chance

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

I’m sticking with Barkhad Abdi for now, though it’s a risky pick. Hanks makes waves with his Saving Mr. Banks performance, and I have to admit that maybe the underappreciated John Goodman will miss out once again. The acting branch might recognize Enough Said with a posthumous nod for James Gandolfini, but will Oscar embrace this brilliant comedy that passes few criteria on the Oscar-contender checklist? Also, I forgot to throw Will Forte into the list last week. Mistake amended.

1. Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips

2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave

3. Jeremy Renner for American Hustle

4. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

4. Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks

6. James Gandolfini for Enough Said
7. John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
9. Will Forte for Nebraska
10. David Oyelowo for Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Also in the running: Harrison Ford for 42, Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street, Daniel Brühl for Rush, Geoffrey Rush for The Book Thief, Javier Bardem for The Counselor, Steve Coogan for Philomena, Matthew McConaughey for Mud, Josh Brolin for Labor Day, Chris Cooper for August: Osage County, Jake Gyllenhaal for Prisoners, Woody Harrelson for Out of the Furnace, Andrew Dice Clay for Blue Jasmine

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Best Original Screenplay

You know, Gravity. Of course, some cite the screenplay as one of the film’s weaknesses, but it’s the one contender with an original screenplay that could go all the way… if American Hustle doesn’t impress, that is.

1. Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón for Gravity

2. David O. Russell and Eric Singer for American Hustle

3. Bob Nelson for Nebraska

4. Ethan and Joel Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis

5. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine

6. Spike Jonze for Her
7. Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station
8. Danny Strong for Lee Daniels’ The Butler
9. Nicole Holofcener for Enough Said
10. Cormac McCarthy for The Counselor

Also in the running: Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith for Saving Mr. Banks, Peter Morgan for Rush, Asghar Farhadi for The Past, Aaron Guzikowski for Prisoners, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for Dallas Buyers Club, Scott Cooper and Brad Inglesby for Out of the Furnace, J.C. Chandor for All is Lost, Simon Pegg and Edgar Wright for The World’s End, Jeff Nichols for Mud, Carey W. Hayes for The Conjuring, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Way, Way Back, David Lowery for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha, Justin Zackham for One Chance, Scott Z. Burns for Side Effects, Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, and Darius Marder for The Place Beyond the Pines

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Best Adapted Screenplay

John Ridley looks like the winner already, but Billy Ray might be threat. Also, don’t count out Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope: They scripted a film that might hit Oscar voters where it counts.

1. John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave

2. Billy Ray for Captain Phillips

3. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena

4. Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight

5. Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix for Blue is the Warmest Color

6. Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Michael Petroni for The Book Thief
8. Tracy Letts for August: Osage County
9. Steve Conrad for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
10. Jason Reitman for Labor Day

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The Author

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.