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Oscar Watching: Guild Overload

cateblanchett_bluejasmine-2

Best Actress in a Leading Role

I imagine that Oscar might copy BAFTA’s lineup: Cate Blanchett is in (and winning and quite deserving, honestly), and Sandra Bullock and Judi Dench are in, too. Voters’ love for Amy Adams and the hype for Hustle should get her in. Emma Thompson also looks safe, but I wonder if she slips out to make way for Adèle Exarchopoulos since Oscar likes to throw curveballs into this particular race when we’re expecting the same old, same old – more specifically, when we’re predicting only those previously recognized.

(Keeping that in mind led me to correctly predict the lineup for the last two years. I called the nods for Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis last year and the Rooney Mara bid the previous year. I’m not losing my mind, I swear.)

But I’ll play it (relatively) safe for now. Blanchett looks like the easy winner for the drama actress Globe, but the race will shift if someone else wins – a very huge possibility given the Globe love for Bullock/Gravity and Dench/Philomena. I imagine Adams wins the musical or comedy actress prize, though Meryl Streep is, you know, Meryl Streep.

1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

2. Sandra Bullock for Gravity

3. Judi Dench for Philomena

4. Amy Adams for American Hustle

5. Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks

6. Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color
7. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
8. Brie Larson for Short Term 12
9. Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Enough Said
10. Julie Delpy for Before Midnight

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

This might be a three-way race between Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Matthew McConaughey. I wasn’t sure Oscar voters could resist McConaughey’s against-type performance and dedication to the role, but BAFTA voters didn’t even nominate the performance, so…

Beyond those three, it’s something of a guessing game, though I imagine the fight for those last two spots is between three actors. Tom Hanks stars in Phillips and Banks, and precursor love for the former suggests he can get in here. The fifth spot seems up for grabs. However, the relatively late hype for Hustle might bode well for BAFTA-nominated Christian Bale, and the last-minute rampage of Wolf might boost the chances of Leonardo DiCaprio – also a BAFTA nominee – though divisive reaction to the film might hurt.

Not to complicate things, but the fight for the last two spots does extend beyond Bale, DiCaprio, and Hanks. Veteran sentiment might pull Robert Redford into the mix, but All is Lost seems to have fewer supporters than Hustle, Phillips, and Wolf do. And don’t forget, Forest Whitaker got that SAG nod, and Oscar Isaac, less importantly, won with the NSFC.

As for those pesky Globes, I doubt voters stray from McConaughey in the drama actor category, while musical or comedy actor is between arguable Oscar front-runner Dern and previous Globe winners Bale and DiCaprio. I’ll take a risk and predict Bale for this one.

1. Bruce Dern for Nebraska

2. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

3. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave

4. Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips

5. Christian Bale for American Hustle

6. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Robert Redford for All is Lost
8. Forest Whitaker for Lee Daniels’ The Butler
9. Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Joaquin Phoenix for Her

 

Those confusing supporting races…

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The Author

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.