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Oscar Watching: Looking to Tomorrow’s Nominations

Selma1

Best Picture

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)

2. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)

4. Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu)

5. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

6. Selma (Ava DuVernay)

7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)

8. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)

9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)

10. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller)
11. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
12. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
13. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
14. Wild (Jean-Marc Vallée)
15. A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)
16. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
17. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
18. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)

You Never Know: Top Five (Chris Rock), Big Eyes (Tim Burton), The LEGO Movie (Phil Lord and Christopher Miller), St. Vincent (Theodore Melfi), Pride (Matthew Warchus), Still Alice (Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland), The Homesman (Tommy Lee Jones)

Richard Linklater

Best Director

1. Richard Linklater for Boyhood

2. Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman

3. Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

5. Clint Eastwood for American Sniper

6. Damien Chazelle for Whiplash
7. James Marsh for The Theory of Everything
8. Ava DuVernay for Selma
9. David Fincher for Gone Girl
10. Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

Other Possibilities: Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler, J.C. Chandor for A Most Violent Year, Rob Marshall for Into the Woods, Jean-Marc Vallée for Wild, Angelina Jolie for Unbroken, Christopher Nolan for Interstellar, Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner, Paul Thomas Anderson for Inherent Vice

Golden Globes

Best Actress in a Leading Role

I thought the top five had been settled, but Amy Adams won that Globe – when most of us were expecting Emily Blunt or Oscar front-runner Julianne Moore (for the Oscar-ineligible Maps to the Stars) to take the prize. This just makes it all the more confusing for me to figure out who gets in. Still, I think she pulls through – and oddly, at the expense of Reese Witherspoon.

1. Julianne Moore for Still Alice

2. Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything

3. Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl

4. Jennifer Aniston for Cake

5. Amy Adams for Big Eyes

6. Reese Witherspoon for Wild
7. Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night
8. Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Belle
9. Emily Blunt for Into the Woods
10. Hilary Swank for The Homesman

You Never Know: Jenny Slate for Obvious Child, Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant, Anne Dorval for Mommy, Keira Knightley for Begin Again, Helen Mirren for The Hundred-Foot Journey, Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Beyond the Lights, Scarlett Johansson for Under the Skin, Shailene Woodley for The Fault in Our Stars

Eddie Redmayne

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Globe winners Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne are safe, but Jake Gyllenhaal, David Oyelowo, and, to a lesser extent, Benedict Cumberbatch all feel vulnerable; one or more could easily fall out to make room for Ralph Fiennes, Steve Carell, or Bradley Cooper.

1. Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

2. Michael Keaton for Birdman

3. Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game

4. Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler

5. David Oyelowo for Selma

6. Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Steve Carell for Foxcatcher
8. Bradley Cooper for American Sniper
9. Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner
10. Oscar Isaac for A Most Violent Year

You Never Know: Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher, Miles Teller for Whiplash, Ben Affleck for Gone Girl, Jack O’Connell for Unbroken, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar, Ellar Coltrane for Boyhood, Joaquin Phoenix for Inherent Vice

Patricia Arquette

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Some doubted that Patricia Arquette would take the Globe, but she prevailed. We’re expecting her to take SAG, BAFTA, and Oscar, too. Given the surge for Nightcrawler, Rene Russo should find herself in this lineup. Oddly enough, Meryl Streep might not be as assured as we generally assume.

1. Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

2. Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game

3. Emma Stone for Birdman

4. Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

5. Rene Russo for Nightcrawler

6. Tilda Swinton for Snowpiercer
7. Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year
8. Laura Dern for Wild
9. Naomi Watts for St. Vincent
10. Imelda Staunton for Pride

You Never Know: Kristen Stewart for Still Alice, Carrie Coon for Gone Girl, Mackenzie Foy for Interstellar, Jessica Chastain for Interstellar, Anna Kendrick for Into the Woods, Vanessa Redgrave for Foxcatcher, Sienna Miller for American Sniper

jksimmons_whiplash_globewin

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The abundance of accolades for Theory have surprised many of us, but what if this small-scale romantic drama has more surprises in store? The “fifth spot” here is presumably held by Robert Duvall‘s work in The Judge, but what voters don’t bother with the poorly reviewed drama?

1. J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

2. Edward Norton for Birdman

3. Ethan Hawke for Boyhood

4. Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher

5. Charlie Cox for The Theory of Everything

6. Tom Wilkinson for Selma
7. Robert Duvall for The Judge
8. Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes
9. Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice
10. Miyavi for Unbroken

You Never Know: Tyler Perry for Gone Girl, Chris Pine for Into the Woods, John Goodman for The Gambler, Martin Short for Inherent Vice, Alec Baldwin for Still Alice, Logan Lerman for Fury

birdman2

Best Original Screenplay

Another round of Birdman vs. Boyhood, it seems, though Budapest now makes a good case for the win. With Whiplash out of the running, Nightcrawler stands a much better chance.

1. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo for Birdman

2. Richard Linklater for Boyhood

3. Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness for The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler

5. Paul Webb for Selma

6. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman for Foxcatcher
7. J.C. Chandor for A Most Violent Year
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for The LEGO Movie
9. Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
10. Pawel Pawlikowski and Rebecca Lenkiewicz for Ida

Other Possibilities: Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner, Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan for Interstellar, Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski for Big Eyes, Theodore Melfi for St. Vincent, John Carney for Begin Again, Justin Simien for Dear White People, Ira Sachs and Mauricio Zacharias for Love is Strange, Stephen Beresford for Pride, Mark Heyman and Craig Johnson for The Skeleton Twins, John Michael McDonagh for Calvary

benedictcumberbatch_imitationgame

Best Adapted Screenplay

Such a weak category, even with the recent addition of Whiplash. No clear front-runner here, but Imitation can win – especially if voters want to the wealth this year.

1. Graham Moore for The Imitation Game

2. Anthony McCarten for The Theory of Everything

3. Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl

4. Damien Chazelle for Whiplash

5. Jason Dean Hall for American Sniper

6. Nick Hornby for Wild
7. Paul Thomas Anderson for Inherent Vice
8. James Gunn and Nicole Perlman for Guardians of the Galaxy
9. Joon-ho Bong and Kelly Masterson for Snowpiercer
10. Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Richard LaGravenese, and William Nicholson for Unbroken

Other Possibilities: Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland for Still Alice, Hamish McColl and Paul King for Paddington

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The Author

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.